Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 23.375926 25.510957 27.835576 30.569295 33.715148 37.245015 41.538281
2025-08-17 20.014065 22.893503 26.259593 30.542440 35.932128 42.611310 51.717084
2025-08-24 17.611027 20.847233 24.835994 30.231571 37.535535 47.396146 62.329851
2025-08-31 15.881063 19.305182 23.705133 29.961294 38.970323 52.094088 74.044991
2025-09-07 14.549704 18.068313 22.745810 29.680319 40.215411 56.653644 86.888087
2025-09-14 13.527313 17.105605 22.003034 29.534979 41.545568 61.536169 101.943044
2025-09-21 12.616295 16.192665 21.207165 29.162448 42.393191 65.731841 117.325588
2025-09-28 12.261147 16.012969 21.425713 30.340290 45.959061 75.646298 149.817106
2025-10-05 11.603586 15.335507 20.826560 30.111236 47.001024 80.949292 174.457472
2025-10-12 11.054459 14.771261 20.341187 29.996367 48.208406 86.909445 205.062320
2025-10-19 10.678358 14.434433 20.173386 30.390874 50.445642 95.840961 252.824972
2025-10-26 10.224134 13.945128 19.717415 30.214533 51.493065 102.273736 298.618486
2025-11-02 9.783681 13.458952 19.243739 29.982028 52.452844 109.040608 356.051307
2025-11-09 9.432288 13.091537 18.939360 30.033699 54.060660 118.303991 442.777353
2025-11-16 9.053978 12.658569 18.491776 29.761442 54.890855 125.707860 536.622640
2025-11-23 8.710843 12.262404 18.078052 29.509705 55.729284 133.585431 658.388546
2025-11-30 8.392355 11.888737 17.676920 29.239856 56.479718 141.604917 814.865120
2025-12-07 8.118230 11.573238 17.356148 29.099652 57.538990 151.368787 1046.349360
2025-12-14 7.830863 11.221388 16.947848 28.735906 57.953094 158.980899 1312.249602
2025-12-21 7.778249 11.258211 17.240113 29.888698 62.736173 188.050037 2425.876825
2025-12-28 7.540866 10.969764 16.916594 29.664750 63.586980 200.120148 3491.986435
2026-01-04 7.333116 10.722499 16.654590 29.552420 64.758519 214.889777 5565.707262
2026-01-11 7.200143 10.597662 16.614154 29.938398 67.553850 241.210376 12945.645467